Friday, May 28, 2010

GTM Research: Global Solar PV Demand to Grow by 58 Percent; $18.9B in Module Revenue in 2010

GTM Research: Global Solar PV Demand to Grow by 58 Percent; $18.9B in Module Revenue in 2010

Global market remains in a state of overcapacity despite demand growth in Italy, Japan and the U.S.

View the press release here.

Cambridge, Mass.--The global solar PV market is poised to have a banner year, according to the recently published market outlook from GTM Research: 2010 Global PV Demand Analysis and Forecast, but some suppliers will encounter difficulty navigating the forthcoming ebb and flow of subsidy programs and increasing module overcapacity.

Buoyed by a continued demand boom in Germany ahead of expected feed-in tariff cuts and second half growth in secondary markets, GTM Research estimates that demand for PV installations will reach 11.2 GW in 2010, up 58 percent from 2009. This will enable $18.9 billion in revenue for global module manufacturers.

German Demand Will Peak in 2010

In 2010, Germany will remain the world's largest market, installing over 5.5 GW. But demand will not be steady or even. Germany's star will begin to fade in the second half of 2010, when feed-in tariff cuts intended to quell runaway market growth will take effect. The German market will decline substantially in the third quarter, forcing module prices to resume their decline after a steady first half. These lower prices will enable a smaller demand rush in the fourth quarter ahead of annual feed-in tariff digression.

After 2010, feed-in tariff digression will force Germany to return to a steady sub-4 GW annual market. This will solidify Germany's position as the largest national market through 2013, although its market share will fall each year.

Italy and the United States Will Begin to Take Flight

While German demand begins to decline, secondary markets will grow substantially. According to Shayle Kann, Senior Energy Analyst at GTM Research and the report's author, "Members of the global PV industry are primarily looking toward Italy and the U.S. as replacements for lost German demand. Italy will experience an immediate demand boom as installations are rushed ahead of a planned feed-in tariff cut. As a result, Italy will install nearly 1.5 GW and will remain the second largest national market in 2010. The United States will serve as a longer-term growth market, but its fractured nature and slow project cycle times will preclude drastic demand growth within a single year."

Over the next four years, global PV demand will increasingly be spread out among a number of markets and the recent boom/bust cycle will begin to dissipate. By 2013, there will be at least five individual markets installing over 1,000 MW annually, with the United States reaching over 2.8 GW and surpassing all countries except Germany.

Despite Demand Growth, the Global Supply/Demand Imbalance Will Worsen

Kann warned that demand growth will not necessarily mean easy expansion for suppliers. Over the next four years, producible module supply will grow from 16 GW by the end of 2010 to nearly 30 GW in 2013. During this period, the growth of available PV module supply will outpace growth in demand by an average of 26 percent per annum.

The impact of this overcapacity will be felt most acutely in 2011, when the global market will grow only 12 percent as a result of falling German demand. As a result, suppliers will be forced to aggressively seek secondary markets and heavy price competition will resume; by 2013, average PV module prices will be as low as $1.20 per watt. Manufacturers without competitive cost structures will struggle to survive, but successful suppliers will share in a market rising above $20 billion in annual module sales revenue.

Thin-Film Will Grow to 30 Percent Market Share by 2013

The promise of thin-film technologies will begin to match reality over the next four years, as winning proponents of newly commercialized modules, as well as First Solar's CdTe, will find increasing demand for their products. But while thin film's market share of demand will grow to 30 percent by 2013, some technologies (particularly amorphous silicon) will have an even larger share of manufacturing capacity. As a result, high-margin thin-film production will be enjoyed by a select few suppliers.

Detailed analysis of eleven key PV markets, as well as forecasts of demand, module pricing, market share by technology, and project economics can be found in the report.

For more on 2010 Global PV Market Analysis and Forecast, please visit:

http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/2010-global-pv-demand-analysis-and-forecast


Thursday, May 27, 2010

Hawaii's biggest solar farm proposed for Mililani fields

Hawaii's biggest solar farm proposed for Mililani fields

Castle & Cooke's planned 120-acre project would have 4 separate operators

Central O'ahu could become home to the largest solar energy farm in the state under a proposal by Castle & Cooke Hawai'i Inc. to produce enough electricity from the sun to power 6,000 homes.

Castle & Cooke plans to convert roughly 120 acres of an agricultural park it owns just south of Mililani into fields of photovoltaic panels capable of generating 20 megawatts of electricity as early as next year.

If realized, the project would be about 17 times bigger than Hawai'i's largest existing solar farm, a 1.2-megawatt facility on Lāna'i that began operating last year and was developed by Castle & Cooke.

There are several other plans for large-scale solar farms around the state, but none of the known projects would rival what Castle & Cooke is proposing.

"It would be among the largest in the country," said Ted Peck, energy administrator at the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

The largest solar energy farm in the United States is a 25-megawatt system in Florida, Peck said.

The Mililani project stands to become the fourth-largest source of renewable energy on O'ahu, behind the recently commissioned 110-megawatt Hawaiian Electric Co. biodiesel-fueled generators, the city's 46-megawatt HPower garbage-to-energy plant and a proposed 30-megawatt North Shore wind farm.

Castle & Cooke's proposal, however, is subject to the state Public Utilities Commission deciding whether the project is subject to a state law requiring HECO to solicit competing bids for any new power generation system over 5 megawatts.

Under Castle & Cooke's plan, four separate companies would each design, build, own and operate a 5-megawatt photovoltaic system in a solar energy park. Castle & Cooke would run one system and serve as park landlord, leasing three roughly 30-acre parcels to independent operators for 20 years or longer.

Castle & Cooke in its proposal to HECO said the solar park arrangement represents a new model of renewable energy generation in Hawai'i, creating efficiencies for solar system operators and benefits for electricity consumers.

HECO earlier this month requested that the PUC clarify whether a solar energy park with four separately owned 5-megawatt systems would be exempt from the procurement law.

Because of the PUC review, HECO spokesman Peter Rosegg said it's premature to comment on Castle & Cooke's plan.

"We're looking at many projects of different technologies and sizes to reach our goal of 40 percent of electricity from renewable sources statewide by 2030," he said in a statement. "And solar farms could make a valuable addition to the renewable energy portfolio on O'ahu."

Carleton Ching, a Castle & Cooke spokesman, declined to comment because of the regulatory review.

COST CONCERNS

Peck said the PUC's review will focus on whether the arrangement is cost- effective for HECO's electricity customers. "Ratepayers can rest assured that this is paramount in (the PUC's consideration)," he said. "If it makes sense for the utility, if it makes sense for the PUC and consumers, and if it makes sense for Castle & Cooke, then we're thrilled."

In the PUC filing, HECO said it believes the solar park format would benefit O'ahu electricity consumers because the four developers would be able to share some infrastructure and other costs that would be passed on to ratepayers.

Putting out a request for competitive bids to produce 20 megawatts of renewable energy generation would potentially add to the cost of electricity and the timetable for production.

Castle & Cooke in its proposal said it has letters of intent with three developers, each of which would need to negotiate separate power purchase agreements with HECO. Castle & Cooke didn't identify the developers, but said in its proposal that the first energy production could begin by June 2011.

ON FARMLAND

One key advantage of the planned Mililani solar energy park is its proximity to a pair of HECO 138-kilovolt transmission lines that would allow a convenient connection to O'ahu's electricity grid and an ability to regulate input of the power.

Relatively high sun intensity in the area that makes the land good for farming also makes the the site good for solar energy production.

The solar energy park site is part of a roughly 500-acre agricultural park between Mililani and Castle & Cooke's proposed Koa Ridge residential community.

The ag park known as Mililani South or Mililani Agricultural Park is leased by local farmer Wayne Ogasawara, who subleases most of the property to other farmers. Formerly the land was part of a pineapple plantation operated by Castle & Cooke affiliate Dole Food Co.

Castle & Cooke is offering tenants on the solar energy park site comparable or better-quality land on which to relocate operations. The developer said in its proposal that the energy farm site has low-productivity soil. Under state land-use law and county zoning, a commercial photovoltaic power system is an allowed use on such land.

The developer didn't disclose any estimated costs for the 20-megawatt project in its proposal, but it could run over $100 million given that Castle & Cooke's 1.2-megawatt system on Lāna'i cost it $19 million.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.

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Monday, May 24, 2010

Solar Panels Advance on Camp Lejeune

May 24, 2010, 9:49 AM

Solar Panels Advance on Camp Lejeune

Green: Living

The military will have solar panels for hot water installed in 900 homes at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina, making the base one of the largest residential producers of solar thermal power. Each house on the base will have one panel on its roof that will cover 75 percent of its hot water needs.

Josh Brown, Actus Lend Lease

The project will be funded partly through subsidies provided under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which made more than $16 billion available for energy efficiency and renewable energy projects through the Energy Department.

“A lot of this is possible through federal and state tax investment credits,” said Matt Lynn, a project leader at Actus Lend Lease, a procurement company that is coordinating the project on behalf of the military. “We can make this a financially viable deal.”

Actus negotiated a deal with FLS Energy, a solar energy company that is selling the panels to the base at a reduced cost. The agreement calls for the military to repay FLS for the panels over 12 years. Once the panels are paid off, the energy will essentially be free. The average lifetime of such panels is estimated at 20 to 25 years, Mr. Lynn said.

He declined to give the price, but said that it was about 20 percent lower than the cost of purchasing the electricity off the grid.

The move is one of several initiatives by the military to embrace renewable energy. Last year, The Times took note of a project to install solar walls to improve heating efficiency at Fort Drum in upstate New York.

The installations are under way and will be completed by December.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

U.S. could fall behind China in clean energy: Locke

May 22, 2010 5:52 PM PDT

U.S. could fall behind China in clean energy: Locke

by Reuters
Reuters

The United States could fall behind China and other countries in clean-energy technology unless Congress passes energy legislation, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said on Saturday.

Many U.S. investors were reluctant to plough money into big solar, wind, and other clean-energy sectors until they knew what technologies the U.S. government policy was going to favor, he said.

"There's too much capital sitting on the sidelines for lack of an energy policy," Locke said during a stop at a U.S. and Chinese joint venture project to build batteries for electric vehicles.

"The longer we wait, the more that others, whether it's China, Germany, and other countries, will be moving ahead."

Gary Locke

Commerce Secretary Gary Locke

(Credit: U.S. Commerce Dept.)

While legislation to fight global warming and provide stronger economic incentives for renewables energy still faces an uncertain fate in Congress, China is pushing clean-energy projects on a number of fronts.

"The opportunities are stunning in China because China has enormous economic growth and that economic growth has led to enormous demands for energy," said Locke, who headed a group of 24 U.S. clean-energy companies on a trade mission to Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing this week.

The joint venture between California-based company Coda and its Chinese partner, Tianjin Lishen Battery, was a model of how cooperation in the clean-energy sector could create jobs in both countries, Locke said.

Lishen builds the batteries for an electric vehicle that Coda plans to sell in the United States. The Chinese state-owned oil company, CNOOC, is also an investor in the project.

Locke also visited the Tianjin facility of a joint venture between United Solar Ovonic, a subsidiary of Energy Conversion Devices, and Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company to convert U.S.-made solar cells into solar modules for the Chinese market.

"We do about 75 percent of the manufacturing in Michigan and then we roll it up and we ship it to Tianjin, where they finish it, cut it up into the sizes that they need," said Uni-Solar Vice President Martha Duggan.

Uni-Solar signed an agreement during Locke's trip to sell 500 kilowatts of its thin-film solar laminates to NYKE Solar Integrators, a Chinese company, for a demonstration project.

"Our theory is that by doing this particular business model, we're creating and sustaining jobs in Michigan and in China," Duggan said.

Story Copyright (c) 2010 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.