Solar PV installations to hit 17GW in 2011, research says
Global solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are forecast to reach 13GW by the end of this year and 17GW by 2011 on production growth and declining prices, a research paper shows.
“We expect a virtuous cycle of falling production costs and module average selling prices (ASPs) to stimulate demand further,” says Goldman Sachs Gao Hua, an affiliate of China-based Gao Hua Securities Investment Research.
The Goldman Sachs Global Clean Energy team bases its installation forecast on supply forecast of 20GW and 28GW in 2010 and 2011 respectively.
Supply is likely to come from lower cost producers such as thin-film makers and Chinese crystalline module makers, the research paper says.
“We think demand may arise where government mandates for increased renewable energy remain strong, finance is readily available, and where domestic and utility scale demand are expected to rise,” it says.
“We expect module production to increase as ASPs decline, enabling PV installation at reasonable internal rate of returns (IRRs).”
Germany “should remain the largest and most important solar market globally for the next two years.”
PV installation in Germany is predicted at 6.5GW and 7.5GW in 2010 and 2011 respectively, and 18GW to 22GW in 2012.
The German market’s feed-in-tariff (FIT) will likely be cut given the lower trend in ASPs by 15% and 12% in the second-half of 2010 and full year 2011 respectively, for European module prices.
The research also believes that both Chinese crystalline module makers and thin-film makers will continue to gain market share due to their 30% lower cost advantage over European and Japanese manufacturers.
“This should encourage more installations so as to optimise production capacity and return on capital,” the paper says.
“We expect the ASPs of Chinese solar modules to fall by 27% and 15% in 2010 and 2011, in line with other regional players.”
Current cost reduction targets also suggest that cost parity between solar energy and conventional energy is within reach between 2012 and 2014, depending on the market.
Published: Monday, June 28 2010
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